Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
